It’s playoff time
It’s that time of year again and as usual anything can happen. In a sport where the last three champions have been wild card teams and the postseason can hinge on the performance of an ace or on the bat of a largely unknown, where those same unknowns become over-night heroes, where the stars get picked on for not turning in superhuman performances and where some men are made legends whose stars will never dim predictions are hard to make and are usually wrong. Nevertheless, I will make my predictions, but more than anything it’s just exciting that the playoffs are upon us.
The playoffs are stacked with good teams and there are good matchups everywhere. The argument can be made that any of these teams could win a short series and any one of those arguments would be right. I like to look at the playoffs from a pitching standpoint and I pick most of my winners due to pitching matchups. It’s just really hard to ignore what two aces can do for a team during the playoffs. The Diamondbacks won a World Series behind two dominant men. The Marlins and Angels won the WS when their cast of largely unknowns pitched better than any other staff. Josh Beckett, a good pitcher but one who has never done anything great in the regular season is revered by many for his performances against the Cubs and Yankees in 2003. This is why I can’t look past the Astros. Pettitte has been the best pitcher in the majors since the All-Star break, Clemens has an ERA under 2, and Oswalt would be the #1 guy for most teams but is a #3 on the Astros. Oswalt finished the year with 20 wins and Albert Pujols said that Oswalt’s stuff is better than anyone’s in baseball. That is a dominant rotation, but people shouldn’t forget that Brandon Backe, the Astros #4, has an ERA around 4.50 and won big games in the playoffs last year. 1 through 4 the Astros are stacked and they have Brad Lidge, the best closer in the NL and arguable the best in the business. Every time I think of what the Astros have, I ask myself “Can the Astros be beat?” And every time I come to the same conclusion. Yes they can be beat, but it’s highly unlikely.
Here is a breakdown of the series, the way I see them.
Angels-Yankees. This is a tough series to forecast. The way I see it the Angels have to win Game 1. Bartolo Colon will get starts in Games 1 and 5 against Mike Mussina. Mussina is coming off an injury and wasn’t very sharp in his last start, but Mussina is a playoff veteran and he has the ability to turn it on at any time. Randy Johnson gets the start in Game 3 at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees will win that game. Paul Byrd will get the start for the Angels in Game 4. The Yankees will win that game. If the Yankees take both those games and they should, they only have to win once in Anaheim. That’s why Game 1 is so big. If the Yankees can beat Colon in Game 1, the series is over right away. If everything plays out to form, this series will hinge on Game 2. The pitching matchup will be John Lackey vs. Shawn Chacon. If it goes 5 games, the Angels are going to win. If it goes 4 games, the Yankees will be the winner. I’m taking the Yankees in 4.
Red Sox-White Sox. A week ago I assumed the White Sox were done. Then they started playing great baseball. They come into the playoffs with a full head of steam and are playing a Red Sox team that had to fight to the last day to get into the playoffs. Games 1 and 5 will see Matt Clement face off against Jose Contreras. Contreras has been the best pitcher on the White Sox the last month and a half, while Clement got off to a great start but has been mediocre at best the last couple of months. The White Sox have the advantage in Games 1 and 5. The White Sox have Buerhle pitching in Game 2 against David Wells. Buerhle is one of the best kept secrets in the majors. He has been a dominant pitcher for the last 3 years. Buerhle is going to get the win in Game 2. In Game 3 John Garland will be opposed by Tim Wakefield. Garland has been good all year, but this game is in Fenway Park and the Red Sox have a slight advantage. Curt Schilling will pitch Game 4 and will win that game. I think the White Sox are going to win this series in either 3 or 5 games.
Astros-Braves. As I have discussed earlier, the Astros have a huge advantage. Andy Pettitte will be opposed by Tim Hudson in Game 1. Since Pettitte has been the best pitcher in the majors since the All-Star break, the Astros have a clear advantage in any game he pitches. Roger Clemens will face John Smoltz in Game 2. This will be a very well pitched game and I don’t want to give the advantage to either team. This is a game that could come down to the bullpen, and the Astros have the better bullpen. In Game 3 the Astros have a clear advantage as Oswalt will face Jorge Sosa. The Astros will win that game. The series could end after three games, but if it does not the Braves plan on pitching Hudson and Smoltz on 3 days rest. The Astros will throw Backe in Game 4 and Pettitte in Game 5. They will win one of those games. The Astros will win this series in 3 games.
Cardinals-Padres. Two months ago the Cardinals were the clear cut favorites to win the World Series because Chris Carpenter was the best pitcher in the world. But two months ago and today are a big difference. Carpenter has had four terrible starts in a row. Those four starts have arguably been his worst of the year, and he has shown no reason to think that he will get back to his dominant self. And the offense isn’t as good as it has been in the past. Pujols is the best hitter in the game, but Scott Rolen is on the DL, Jim Edmonds is having his worst season in St. Louis, Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders are playing even though both are hurt. The rest of their roster is filled with David Eckstein, Abraham Nunez, Mark Grudzielanek (?), and John Mabry. Is that really a scary lineup? I don’t think so. Chris Carpenter will face Jake Peavy in Games 1 and 5. As bad as Carpenter has been and as good as Peavy has been of late, the Padres really should win both of those games. Mark Mulder, right now the Cardinals best starter faces Pedro Astacio in Game 2. The Padres are throwing in the towel for that game. The biggest game of the Series will be Game 3. Adam Eaton faces Matt Morris, who started the year 10-0 and finished it 14-10. If the Padres can win games 3 or 4 at home, they will win this series. The Padres will beat the Cardinals in 5 games.
The playoffs are stacked with good teams and there are good matchups everywhere. The argument can be made that any of these teams could win a short series and any one of those arguments would be right. I like to look at the playoffs from a pitching standpoint and I pick most of my winners due to pitching matchups. It’s just really hard to ignore what two aces can do for a team during the playoffs. The Diamondbacks won a World Series behind two dominant men. The Marlins and Angels won the WS when their cast of largely unknowns pitched better than any other staff. Josh Beckett, a good pitcher but one who has never done anything great in the regular season is revered by many for his performances against the Cubs and Yankees in 2003. This is why I can’t look past the Astros. Pettitte has been the best pitcher in the majors since the All-Star break, Clemens has an ERA under 2, and Oswalt would be the #1 guy for most teams but is a #3 on the Astros. Oswalt finished the year with 20 wins and Albert Pujols said that Oswalt’s stuff is better than anyone’s in baseball. That is a dominant rotation, but people shouldn’t forget that Brandon Backe, the Astros #4, has an ERA around 4.50 and won big games in the playoffs last year. 1 through 4 the Astros are stacked and they have Brad Lidge, the best closer in the NL and arguable the best in the business. Every time I think of what the Astros have, I ask myself “Can the Astros be beat?” And every time I come to the same conclusion. Yes they can be beat, but it’s highly unlikely.
Here is a breakdown of the series, the way I see them.
Angels-Yankees. This is a tough series to forecast. The way I see it the Angels have to win Game 1. Bartolo Colon will get starts in Games 1 and 5 against Mike Mussina. Mussina is coming off an injury and wasn’t very sharp in his last start, but Mussina is a playoff veteran and he has the ability to turn it on at any time. Randy Johnson gets the start in Game 3 at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees will win that game. Paul Byrd will get the start for the Angels in Game 4. The Yankees will win that game. If the Yankees take both those games and they should, they only have to win once in Anaheim. That’s why Game 1 is so big. If the Yankees can beat Colon in Game 1, the series is over right away. If everything plays out to form, this series will hinge on Game 2. The pitching matchup will be John Lackey vs. Shawn Chacon. If it goes 5 games, the Angels are going to win. If it goes 4 games, the Yankees will be the winner. I’m taking the Yankees in 4.
Red Sox-White Sox. A week ago I assumed the White Sox were done. Then they started playing great baseball. They come into the playoffs with a full head of steam and are playing a Red Sox team that had to fight to the last day to get into the playoffs. Games 1 and 5 will see Matt Clement face off against Jose Contreras. Contreras has been the best pitcher on the White Sox the last month and a half, while Clement got off to a great start but has been mediocre at best the last couple of months. The White Sox have the advantage in Games 1 and 5. The White Sox have Buerhle pitching in Game 2 against David Wells. Buerhle is one of the best kept secrets in the majors. He has been a dominant pitcher for the last 3 years. Buerhle is going to get the win in Game 2. In Game 3 John Garland will be opposed by Tim Wakefield. Garland has been good all year, but this game is in Fenway Park and the Red Sox have a slight advantage. Curt Schilling will pitch Game 4 and will win that game. I think the White Sox are going to win this series in either 3 or 5 games.
Astros-Braves. As I have discussed earlier, the Astros have a huge advantage. Andy Pettitte will be opposed by Tim Hudson in Game 1. Since Pettitte has been the best pitcher in the majors since the All-Star break, the Astros have a clear advantage in any game he pitches. Roger Clemens will face John Smoltz in Game 2. This will be a very well pitched game and I don’t want to give the advantage to either team. This is a game that could come down to the bullpen, and the Astros have the better bullpen. In Game 3 the Astros have a clear advantage as Oswalt will face Jorge Sosa. The Astros will win that game. The series could end after three games, but if it does not the Braves plan on pitching Hudson and Smoltz on 3 days rest. The Astros will throw Backe in Game 4 and Pettitte in Game 5. They will win one of those games. The Astros will win this series in 3 games.
Cardinals-Padres. Two months ago the Cardinals were the clear cut favorites to win the World Series because Chris Carpenter was the best pitcher in the world. But two months ago and today are a big difference. Carpenter has had four terrible starts in a row. Those four starts have arguably been his worst of the year, and he has shown no reason to think that he will get back to his dominant self. And the offense isn’t as good as it has been in the past. Pujols is the best hitter in the game, but Scott Rolen is on the DL, Jim Edmonds is having his worst season in St. Louis, Larry Walker and Reggie Sanders are playing even though both are hurt. The rest of their roster is filled with David Eckstein, Abraham Nunez, Mark Grudzielanek (?), and John Mabry. Is that really a scary lineup? I don’t think so. Chris Carpenter will face Jake Peavy in Games 1 and 5. As bad as Carpenter has been and as good as Peavy has been of late, the Padres really should win both of those games. Mark Mulder, right now the Cardinals best starter faces Pedro Astacio in Game 2. The Padres are throwing in the towel for that game. The biggest game of the Series will be Game 3. Adam Eaton faces Matt Morris, who started the year 10-0 and finished it 14-10. If the Padres can win games 3 or 4 at home, they will win this series. The Padres will beat the Cardinals in 5 games.
posted by bbwillrk @ 3:22 PM
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